Monday, October 4, 2010

Gallup Polls Foretell Election Losses

Public approval of Congress remains in short supply in September, with 18% of Americans now approving of the job it is doing, similar to the 19% approving in August. Congress' approval rating has not been above 20% since May, and has not surpassed 30% since September 2009.

Presidents' approval ratings at the beginning of October in their first midterm election year are generally similar to what they will be at the time of the election. Richard Nixon is the only president whose rating improved significantly (from 51% to 58%) in the final weeks leading up to his first midterm election. If Obama's approval rating does not improve in the coming weeks, his support will be similar to that of Ronald Reagan (42% in 1982) and Bill Clinton (45% in 1994), both of whose parties suffered substantial congressional losses in the midterm election.

Ezra Klein forecasts who'll be voting in the mid term election:
I'd just note that if you were profiling the people who typically turn out in midterm elections, you'd probably say something like "married, white, conservative Republicans above age 65."
Obama's approval rating for these categories are extremely low:
Married               39%
White                  36%
conservatives       23%
Republicans         12%

If you take a look at Obama's strongest supporters, you'll find the following:
Non-Hispanic-Black .....91%
Democrat ...79%%
18-29 year olds...57%
Hispanic... 55%
Post Graduate...53%
Non married...53%
East... 52%
Monthly income
less than $2,000...51%

If  non-white, non-married, young, college educated, Democrats, and liberal fool Republicans and vote in the mid term elections, Democrats have a chance.  If these groups stay home as Republicans are counting on, we can rest assured that we'll be returning to the politics of George W. Bush.

In a democracy, you get what you ask for.  Consider the high cost of not voting in November and make sure you get to the polls and vote.

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